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Clare Pain's avatar

What a huge body of work you have done here Alison! For me the following points you raise about this study are key. It is completely wrong to count a person as unvaccinated for the 21 days after their first shot. This unjustifiable practice began with the clinical trials and has been used in virtually every paper since. People who get vaccinated must go through those 21 days so what happens to them is relevant. Raphael Lataster of Okay Then News Substack has written published pieces in academic journals calling out this "Counting Window Effect". https://okaythennews.substack.com/p/science-summary-covid-19-vaccines

You have done a great job on getting Professor John Ioannidis to comment on the excessively high IFR of 4.45% used in the study. I think that point alone reduces the number of lives saved in this mathematical model to a quarter of that claimed. And of course it’s all very well to count lives saved from covid (and covid deaths are of course, as you say, overestimated anyway because of the very broad definitions used) but that has to be balanced by lives lost due to the vaccines which the paper completely ignores. The way to study that is to look at all-cause mortality for all deaths during the pandemic (both before and after the vaccine rollout) and to carefully examine the rates of all deaths and the relationship to covid vaccination status.

It's all very well to do these and other studies that have been widely quoted by public health officials that are based on dubious mathematical models of 'what might have been if we hadn't used the vaccines'. What we first need to come to grips with and find out for sure is: 'what has been'. In a world where so many countries, including Australia, have had unprecedented excess mortality for several years now, the hypothesis that some or all of the pandemic measures did more harm than good has to be rigorously examined.

Finally on conflicts of interest, I did notice that the paper, under the section entitled ‘Author Contributions’ on page 14 says ‘Funding acquisition: Haydar Demirhan’. That seems a little at odds with the statement on p1 ‘Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.’!

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Raphael Lataster (BPharm, PhD)'s avatar

Wow that response is dreadful. They can't beat us on science so they resort to name-calling. Also, the journal will allow me to email the comment so they can (hopefully) post it on my behalf. We shall see!

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